On Jan. 15, former President Donald Trump set a record-winning finish at the Iowa caucus. Being the caucus with the lowest turnout in the last quarter-century, only about 110,000 votes were placed, making up just under 15% of Iowa’s 752,000 registered Republicans. Trump secured 51% of the vote leading him to pick up 20 out of the state’s 40 delegates. Ron DeSantis narrowly came in second place earning 21.2% of the vote and nine delegates, followed by Nikki Haley with 19.1% of the vote and eight delegates. This meant a 30%-point victory for Trump, breaking Bob Dole’s 13%-point record victory over second-place Pat Robertson and 18 points over third-place George Bush in 1988.
The caucus results demonstrate the amount of Republican support Trump has going into the election. Trump outperformed DeSantis in conservative strongholds and Haley in more moderate suburban counties surrounding Des Moines – though with tighter margins. The caucus also served as the final nail that caused Vivek Ramaswamy to suspend his presidential campaign.
With DeSantis checking almost every box that would typically be required to win Iowa, Trump’s complete dominance over the vote comes as a bit of a shock. DeSantis visited all 99 counties, taking questions from locals and the press on each stop, won over Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and spent millions on door-knocking programs to amp up support. Despite his efforts, as of Jan. 21, DeSantis suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump.
Over the past two weeks, Haley has faced media scrutiny over her remarks, which may have weakened her momentum before the caucuses. An almost perfect performance over the remainder of her running will be necessary to be in a competitive race against Trump. New Hampshire provides a place that may produce good outcomes for her, as she must demonstrate that she can at least come close to defeating Trump to justify continuing her campaign to South Carolina, where she was formerly governor.
Although the final Iowa results left Trump with a tighter grip on the GOP nomination, Iowa has been an uneven predictor of who will lead the Republican party in the long run. The results did, however, pose questions over the future of Haley’s and DeSantis’ campaigns with them being Trump’s strongest challengers. The GOP race continues to New Hampshire, which will hold the nation’s first primary on Jan. 23.
