2020 Vision: Early Predictions for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election


Angelina Astic, Copy Editor

Although the 2020 election just recently brought in President Joseph R. Biden and his administration, both the Democrat and Republican parties have begun to discuss possible candidates for the 2024 presidential election. 

Biden decided to run for president in 2020 as a result of President Donald J. Trump’s response to the 2019 “Unite the Right” rally. The rally, which took place in Charlottesville, Virginia, featured far-right extremists who had initially gathered to protest the removal of a Confederate statue. It ended in the deaths of 19 individuals after James Alex Fields Jr. drove his vehicle into a crowd of individuals who had decided to protest against the rally. 

Prompting to run for the presidency after the incident, Biden emerged from retirement after an over four-decade long political career. His win marked his first presidential win after running for the presidency three times previously.   

Many conflicting accounts have circulated alleging whether or not Biden plans to run for reelection in 2024. Politico released an article in December  2019 stating that aides had announced that Biden only plans to run for one term in office. However, prior to his inauguration, Democratic Senator Chris Coons, a friend of the president, stated that Biden does  plan to run for reelection. 

Due to the uncertainty surrounding Biden’s potential run for reelection in 2024, the Democratic party remains quite silent on possible candidates for the presidency. Other than the president, Vice President Kamala D. Harris acts as the foremost Democratic frontrunner, if Biden chooses not to run for a second term. 

After Trump’s exit from the oval office in January 2021, it remains uncertain if the former president plans to announce a campaign for reelection in 2024. Initially mum on the subject, Trump alluded to a possible run in the next presidential election during his appearance at the 2021 Conservative Political Action Conference.

In recent years, a worsening fracture has formed in the GOP, as many Trump-supporting Republicans such as Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene and Senator Josh Hawley do not see eye to eye with known Republican establishment figures Senator Mitt Romney and Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson.

If Trump chooses to not run in 2024, current leading candidates for the Republican nomination include former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former Vice President Mike Pence, Senator Ted Cruz, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem and former Governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley.

However, a breakout star in the Republican party, primarily due to his handling of the pandemic, is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. In a straw poll done at CPAC, DeSantis finished second in a poll covering the list of possible candidates, including Trump, for the 2024 election. 

When looking to third party candidates, it remains unclear who they may name as their nominees. Americans can expect the Green Party, Libertarian Party, Constitution Party and many other smaller political parties to spotlight their candidates and name their nominees closer to the election year. 

Regardless of whom the major parties select as their nominees for the presidency, much uncertainty remains regarding what the 2024 election may look like in a time of an ever-changing political climate.