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Will 2018 Be a Blue Wave Election?

October 29, 2018

With the midterm elections quickly approaching, the citizens of the United States will vote to decide the fate of those holding power in Congress. One third of all U.S.senators are up for reelection, while the entire House of Representatives will have to defend their seats. After Donald Trump was elected in 2016, the government majority was conservative, with both Congress and the executive branch under the control of the GOP.

More often than not, the party aligned with the sitting president suffers when midterms arrive.  Midterm elections are seen as a correction to most voters. During the midterm elections of both the Bush and Obama administrations, the midterms lost seats for their respective parties, with the exception of only one time. Under President Obama’s midterm elections, the Democratic party lost control of the House of Representatives, and forfeited a colossal 63 seats, keeping control of the Senate by one seat.

Now, under the Trump administration, the GOP is reliving this same situation.

According to Real clear politics, there are thirty-one house races that are considered “toss-ups,” meaning that the race is  too close to favor a certain candidate.  Of those thirty-one races, thirty are currently republican held.  Eleven seats that are also republican held are expected to be won by democrats in this year’s midterms. Currently, the gap between Republicans and Democrats in the house is by a margin of forty-two seats. This means that if the Democrats  muscle out a minimum of twenty-two victories in districts previously controlled by the Republican party, the Democrats would have control of the house for the first time in eight years. If this were to happen, the political power in the country would no longer reside with the Republicans.

It is far more likely for the Democrats to win control of the House of Representatives  than the Senate. This is because there are more Democrats up for reelection than there are Republicans, and those Republicans running races are mostly in securely Republican states. Only two Republican seats are in question: Arizona’s open seat, and the toss up in Nevada, where there is also an incumbent Democratic seat that is “lean republican:” Senator Heitkamp’s seat in North Dakota, and holding onto the Senate is vital to the Republicans, with the GOP party knowing that if the Democrats gain control of the house, they are likely to administer articles of impeachment for President Trump. However, if the GOP continues to control the Senate, they can block any such actions regarding the   President’s removal.

To consider the midterms a wave election in either party’s favor, a party should be able to turn both houses of congress. It is very unlikely that will happen, and the Republicans will most likely be able to hold onto at least one house of congress. Therefore, the idea that the election is going to be a “blue wave” is very unlikely.

 

 

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